Bruins go Duck hunting in Eugene

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

01/04/2009 - Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - McArthur Court in Eugene is the site of today's Pac-10 Conference clash between the UCLA Bruins and the Oregon Ducks.

UCLA opened Pac-10 play on Friday against Oregon State, and the result of that tilt was a 69-46 road victory. That win was the seventh in a row for the Bruins, who are now 11-2 overall. The schedule has been fairly soft for UCLA, which lost to Michigan and Texas, the two best teams that the club has faced thus far.

Oregon also opened the Pac-10 portion of its schedule on Friday, falling to USC in an 83-62 final in front of a disappointed home crowd. That loss halted a modest two-game win streak for the Ducks, who are a disappointing 6-7 overall. They have lost by double digits to the only three ranked teams that they have faced thus far and are considered underdogs today.

UCLA has won its last three meetings with Oregon and owns a commanding 79-25 advantage in the all-time series between the teams.

Heading into Friday's game against Oregon State, UCLA was averaging 77.2 ppg on 50.1 percent shooting from the floor while limiting opponents to 57.9 ppg on 42.5 percent shooting. Darren Collison was scoring 14.3 ppg and dishing out 5.3 apg through the first 12 outings of the campaign, and he came through with a 16-point effort against Oregon State. Michael Roll also tallied 16 points in the contest, as he nailed all four of his three-point attempts off the bench. The third and final double-digit scorer in the win was Drew Gordon, as he hit all four of his shots from the floor en route to 11 points. UCLA led 37-16 at intermission after holding the Beavers to seven field goals in the first half. The second half was much more competitive, but the large halftime lead proved to be more than enough to earn the Bruins a win. They forced 20 turnovers in the clash and finished with a 12-4 edge on the offensive boards.

Oregon is scoring a respectable 73.8 ppg this season, but the club's output would certainly be higher if not for 41.4 percent shooting from the floor. Defensively, the Ducks are permitting 76.9 ppg to the opposition. Tajuan Porter is the leading scorer for Oregon with 14.2 ppg, but his 37.9 percent shooting is clearly disappointing. Michael Dunigan checks in with 11.2 ppg and 6.0 rpg, while Garrett Sim provides 10.6 ppg. The fourth and final double- digit scorer for the Ducks is LeKendric Longmire with 10.2 ppg. In the ugly loss to USC on Friday, Oregon connected on only 37.1 percent of its field goal attempts, including an 8-of-28 showing from three-point range. The Ducks were also outscored 17-8 from the foul line and outrebounded by a 44-33 margin. Porter scored 12 points in the setback, while Sim and Kamyron Brown netted 10 points apiece.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.